EU truck industry could lose up to a tenth of sales to foreign rivals, according to BCG study
(Transport and Environment, 27 Sep 2023) Failure to meet demand for zero-emission trucks would present opportunity for Tesla and BYD, T&E says.
European truckmakers could lose 11% of the EU market to international electric rivals by 2035, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has forecasted in a study commissioned by Transport & Environment (T&E). It is one of three scenarios analysed by BCG on the impact of international competition. This would mean losing market share equivalent to that of trucking giants Scania or IVECO to the likes of Tesla and BYD, T&E says. The NGO is calling on lawmakers to lean on European producers to ramp up the supply of zero-emission trucks and better prepare them for international competition.
Entry barriers are higher in the truck market than for cars, with little international trade today. But that can change fast if other regions electrify faster. BCG finds EU demand for zero-emission trucks will surge to 55% of sales by 2030, as prices fall. But current truck CO2 standards risk European manufacturers not meeting demand. T&E said EU lawmakers should set more ambitious targets to require truckmakers to produce more zero-emission vehicles. This would help avoid a repeat of the car market, where European car companies that were slow to electrify now face increased competition in the EU from Chinese EV manufacturers.