Five charts on the Energy Transition: the 2020s is the decade of maximum disruption. By 2030 the endgame will be clear
(Energy Post, 25 May 2023) Sam Butler-Sloss and Kingsmill Bond at RMI present a succinct summary of why the energy transition matters, how the 2020s is the era of maximum disruption, and how by 2030 the transition’s endgame will be apparent (though far from complete).
Four key technologies are already entering the exponential growth stage: solar, wind, EVs and heat pumps. As early as 2030 their cheapness will flush away the fossil equivalents in succeeding decades, say the authors. They warn that companies and countries must now act quickly as it is hard to catch an exponential curve from behind. You can see how superior renewable technologies are to fossils by comparing their main characteristics: fossils are commodities (they don’t get cheaper), geographically concentrated, with their learning curve fully played out, while renewables are manufactured, technology-driven, getting cheaper, and available everywhere.
China, the U.S., Europe and India, over the next four years, will set the direction. But by 2030 the negative effects of climate change will also be much more apparent, so it’s vital for other locations and technologies to get onto a similar path.
The energy transition is driven by the exponential growth of renewables, and the key changes will happen by 2030.
Energy Post, 25 May 2023: Five charts on the Energy Transition: the 2020s is the decade of maximum disruption. By 2030 the endgame will be clear